The run-up to the Premier League TV rights auction is broadcasting's equivalent of the transfer silly season, a time of fevered speculation about telephone-number "bids" for the choice assets.

Indeed, television and the league are inextricably linked – it is the exponential rise in broadcasting income that has fuelled huge increases in players' wages and transfer fees, which has, in turn, pulled in the top talent that keeps the bandwagon rolling.

Premier League executives and a coterie of close advisers are poring over the fine print of tender documents for the three seasons from 2016-17 onwards. These will likely be sent out early in the New Year.

David Zaslav, Chief Executive of US cable giant Discovery, got tongues wagging earlier this year when he sketched out plans for the newly acquired sports broadcaster, Eurosport.

"We have had a lot of conversations with a lot of players in local markets, looking for partners as sports rights come up," he said in March. "We will be keen to look at what is available," he added, pushing the rumour mill into overdrive.

It has also become traditional at this stage in the proceedings to speculate about the intentions of global technology giants such as Google. However, everything points to the conclusion that it considers itself more of a content platform than rights owner.

Deep-pocketed, Doha-based sports broadcaster BeIn Sports, owned by Al Jazeera, considered a bid last time. But it decided to concentrate on less-developed markets and expansion in France, where a sister company owns Paris Saint-Germain soccer team.

Another question that always comes up at this point is whether "the bubble is finally going to burst". With each successive auction, it seems less and less likely that this particular bubble is going to pop. Instead, the bubble simply changes shape to adapt to different market circumstances.

Despite all the conjectures, the auction process retains the capacity to surprise. While the industry was busy whispering about Al Jazeera three years ago, a small cabal of telecoms executives was secretly plotting around the kitchen table of BT Consumer Chief Executive John Petter.

Jaws collectively dropped when Premier League Chief Executive Richard Scudamore revealed that BT had paid £738m over three years for live rights to 38 matches per season.

The league's total income from the auction soared by a whopping 71%.

It could have been more dramatic still. Informed sources claimed that BT Sport had tried to outbid BSkyB for all of the packages on offer.

Premier League football has been a signature offering and a crucial engine of growth for BSkyB since a secret phone call in 1991. Alan Sugar, at that time the Chairman of Spurs, told the satellite-TV company's then-CEO, Sam Chisholm, to blow ITV "out of the water" to gain the nascent Premier League rights.

Much has changed since then – not least, Sky's success in diversifying beyond football and movies. But Premier League rights remain absolutely core to its business model.

BT's raid forced Sky to pay £2.3bn for its 116 games per season. Some analysts believe the telecoms giant will have to pay north of £3bn if it wants to wrest control of the majority of live rights from its rival.

Once the income from overseas rights is factored in, the Premier League has earned £5.5bn over its current three-year deal. The consensus is that the competition is intensifying and the total will be even higher next time.

The Premier League era is littered with the ruins of companies that have tried and failed to take on Sky Sports. Think of ITV Digital, Setanta and even the Disney-owned global giant, ESPN.

But BT Sport, broadcasting from cavernous new studios in London's Olympic Park, has since reinforced its commitment to a multimedia plan aimed at building its broadband business. BT paid £900m to steal the rights from Sky to show Champions League games from next season.
And it has deeper pockets and a stronger strategic rationale to keep investing than those who have gone before.

It is, predictably, keeping its cards close to its chest. Both Petter and BT Chief Executive Gavin Patterson have argued that the deal with Uefa for Champions League and Europa League matches enables it to make the decision on whether to stick or twist from a position of strength.

"With each successive auction, it seems less and less likely that this particular bubble is going to pop"

Due to its expense, that Champions League deal will force BT to alter its strategy of giving away its channels for nothing to its broadband customers.

The deal also leaves it with a natural vehicle to house more Premier League rights if it launches a new channel for "premium" content.

That may, however, undermine the rationale of using BT Sport as an added extra to entice broadband subscribers.

As the Premier League considers how best to structure the packages that live matches are divided into, it is bound to look at ways to increase the overall total on offer to keep both parties happy.

But given scheduling difficulties, it is hard to grow the cake that much more.

One option, of introducing a new Sunday-night package is believed to have been ruled out for practical reasons, including policing constraints.

As the Premier League's income has grown, from £191m for that first deal in 1991 to £5.5bn now, it has done so in the shadow of regulatory and legal challenges that have shaped the process.

This time around, Virgin Media has submitted a complaint to Ofcom that the current structure has led to ineffective competition and a lack of genuine choice.

Although cynics suspect it is trying to bolster its bargaining position over wholesale fees, Virgin insists that it has the interests of the consumer at heart.

Toby Syfret, of Enders Analysis, recognises that Virgin might have a point. "There is a very genuine question if you are starting to push people to price points where the market for sports subscriptions will crack," he says.

Wider forces are also at play. James Murdoch, 21st Century Fox Co-Chief Operating Officer, predicted recently in Cannes that, under pressure from Brussels, "territoriality will probably break down over time".

That could have wide-ranging implications for future Premier League tenders. It is also tempting to wonder whether BSkyB's acquisition of majority stakes in Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia has been driven not only by a desire for scale and production synergies, but with one eye on the future shape of the rights market.

BT paid £900m to steal the rights from Sky to show Champions League games from next season

Meanwhile, the prospect of taking regular season games abroad has returned to the agenda, though probably not in time for this tender process. The Premier League's battle against online piracy and against pubs beaming in matches via overseas broadcasters is ongoing.

Away from the titanic battle for live rights there are some intriguing subplots. Will ITV return to the fray to try to wrest the highlights from the BBC? Match of the Day has proved an enduringly popular riposte to the theory that recorded highlights programmes would become obsolete.
And, having splashed out on the rights to online goal clips to help drive traffic to their subscription websites, will The Sun and The Times return to the fray?

But it is on the battle royale for the live rights that most of the attention will focus – it is the equivalent of big-spenders Manchester City and Chelsea slugging it out for the Premier League title.

The league won't comment on the ongoing process, even to confirm the timings, but Scudamore said in May that the main tender for the live rights would be concluded by the end of this season. "We talk to interested parties all the time. We go to market at least 18 months in advance of the new season," he said.

Syfret suggests that, even if Sky lost its dominant position after a quarter of a century of symbiotic growth with top-flight football, it would not necessarily be the end of the world.

"It would be serious. However, it would be a massive revenue saving," he says. "I remain sceptical overall about BT Sport's model."

Like many others, though, he is predicting a score draw. "If I was the Premier League, I wouldn't want BT to wipe out Sky. I'd want both to win. My sense is that they'll try and find a way to ensure that happens."