No one wants to shout “Fire!” in a crowded theatre. So says Wales-based former Doctors writer Phil Ralph. But if ever there was a time to do it, that time is now. And rather than panic, the response should be urgent firefighting.

It has been a perfect storm: the brief post-Covid boom in commissioning veering towards “bust”; the streamers driving up production costs; BBC funding dropping by 30% since 2010; advertising revenue falling at Channel 4, ITV and Channel 5; and the cost-of-living crisis affecting businesses as well as households.

This storm has devastated our nations and regions disproportionately, with long-running Midlands drama Doctors axed last year, and Liverpool-produced Hollyoaks cutting 30 cast and 130 staff. Then ITV announced that the northern soaps Coronation Street and Emmerdale will have less airtime from 2026.

Now River City, which won an RTS Scotland Award for Drama as recently as 2023, will be cancelled after almost 25 years. BBC Scotland commissioning editor Gavin Smith says: “It has been a difficult decision. But the show’s audience has dropped by about 40% over the last five years. It’s part of a strategic shift to give viewers more of what we believe they’re after.”

Script editor on the show, Jamie Mackinlay, describes the news as “a hammer blow to the industry in Scotland”. With 66 episodes a year produced at its Dumbarton base, Mackinlay fears “the impact on the ecosystem of the industry in Scotland has been underestimated”.

BBC Scotland, meanwhile, has announced three new commissions. “It’s a start, not an end,” Smith tells Television. “BBC investment in Scotland drama over the next three years is increasing to £95m. That’s before that money has leveraged additional ­millions from distributors and co-producers. This will lead to more jobs in the Scottish sector.”

But Mackinlay warns: “While it’s exciting to have these new premium dramas, I’m concerned because I don’t think you can replace the [training] model offered by long-running drama. You don’t have the luxury of time on a drama that is only six episodes and shot over just three months.”

New entrants to the industry have traditionally started their careers in two ways: on a short-run drama, each head of department takes on a trainee for the duration of the shoot; and on soaps, there are regular call-outs for trainees, sometimes across the board and sometimes directed at under-­represented groups.

They start as runners, either in a specific department or moving between departments, on short-term contracts, with the possibility of extending these if they impress. From there, they can be offered an assistant position, leading to a staff contract. Some become freelance and dip in and out of the soaps between other drama jobs.

“River City was great at bringing ­people through via connections with training organisations,” Smith acknowledges. “But the shorter-run series have training built in. As do third-party shows like [long-running historical fantasy drama] Outlander.”

Yet Mackinlay observes: “I worry for sustainability. It’s brilliant to have investment but there are no guarantees for locals to work on those shows, especially writers and editorial. They’ll have a showrunner and their own teams. River City is a big employer. There are a lot of people worried that they’ll have to move south to get work.”

This lack of sustainability in the UK industry is also cited by Ralph, who has earned nothing from screenwriting since his last Doctors commission more than a year ago. He claims that the axing of long-running shows is “gutting the infrastructure of the industry”.

Trainees on short placements return to their “temporary” jobs when the work ends. And experienced staff made redundant by the closure of long-running series won’t be there to pass on skills and knowledge.

They face stark choices. Some are relocating, but there’s an emotional and a financial cost. Relocating if you have children and a mortgage isn’t always possible as it involves leaving families and other support networks.

Some are staying in the industry but taking a step down the ladder in terms of position and pay – for example, production designers working as art directors – and digging into savings to make up the shortfall in salary.

Many are leaving the industry altogether after months of failure to secure another job. “If you eat away at the heart of the industry like this, you no longer have an industry,” Ralph warns.

According to Birmingham-based Doctors writer Claire Bennett, things are no better in the Midlands. She has had meetings with Steven Knight’s Digbeth Loc Studios, but they are a long way off going into production.

Her fellow writer Ralph comments: “There’s a reason why writers like Russell T Davies, Sarah Phelps and Jack Thorne get continually commissioned. It’s because they’re very good. But they got that good because they had the opportunity [in long-running drama] to get all that screenwriting experience.

“The problem is that, if we commission the same writers, we get the same voices, the same themes, and TV becomes a monoculture.”

Bennett says: “There is some light. Producers Will Trotter and Ollie Kent  [who recently set up Mill Bay Media, a Birmingham-based scripted indie] have seen the big hole in the middle of the country that is the Midlands and know there is skill and talent here.”

As well as the financial and emotional costs, there is a cultural impact. “Television is one of the great drivers of storytelling in our nation,” Sister co-founder Jane Featherstone recently told Broadcast.

Given the evident importance of long-running series to the entire drama ecosystem, Mackinlay asks: “Why aren’t we future-proofing long-running shows, and thinking about how we can appeal to audiences in Britain today?”

Tom Stokoe, Head Set Dresser on Hollyoaks, lost half his team when the show was cut from 115 minutes of weekly screen time to 60. The cuts were brutal, but with a mix of a streaming-first strategy, savvy marketing, and recreating brand partnerships with advertisers and government campaigns, Hollyoaks, to Liverpool’s great advantage, has thrived.

Stokoe says that, on the “untapped market” of YouTube, “Channel 4 is saying that we had 3.5m views globally last year”. “Younger viewers watch short clips on social media platforms,” he says. “Our digital department at Lime is great at getting content and storylines out in just a 30-second clip. That creates a hook, so they come in [to watching the show] that way.

“Liverpool is booming for TV production,” concludes Stokoe, “and reaping the rewards from Hollyoaks is [BBC crime drama] This City Is Ours. One of the main exec producers, a producer and one of the directors previously worked at Lime Pictures. And 80% of the design team came through that design runner role on Hollyoaks.”

Clearly, it’s in everyone’s interest to create and maintain a healthy and sustainable UK television industry.

So call the fire brigade!